How MarketMiss computes a fair probability
Sep 7, 2026 · 4 min read
The whole method behind the Fair column, in plain language: a public nowcast, its historical misses, and a probability that a contract resolves YES. No black box, no language model.
1 post tagged “methodology”.
The whole method behind the Fair column, in plain language: a public nowcast, its historical misses, and a probability that a contract resolves YES. No black box, no language model.