- What is a fair probability?
- Our independent estimate of the chance a contract resolves YES. It comes from a public nowcast (Cleveland Fed for CPI, GDPNow for GDP) and the historical distribution of that nowcast's misses — not from a language model and not from the market price. It is an estimate and may be wrong.
- What does the gap mean?
- Fair probability minus market consensus, in percentage points. A positive gap means our model thinks YES is more likely than the market does. A gap is a disagreement to investigate, not a recommendation.
- What is market consensus?
- The Kalshi and Polymarket YES prices for the same event, blended with weights that favour the deeper market. Each venue's own price is always shown next to it.
- Why do some rows say “no model”?
- Because we do not have an honest model for that event type yet. Fed decisions are the main case: a credible Fed model needs futures data we do not have for free. We show the market only rather than invent a number.
- Can I trust the track record?
- Every fair value is written to an append-only log with its inputs and method version, and is never edited after the fact. The track record scores every resolved event against the market with the Brier score. Losing calls stay on the page.
- Do you execute trades or hold funds?
- No. We link to the contract on Kalshi or Polymarket; anything you do there is on the venue under its terms. Nothing here is investment advice.
- What does Early Access include?
- The fair probability on every event (free accounts see the top three), the full prediction log, an unlimited watchlist, and email alerts when a gap crosses a threshold you set. $19 a month, cancel any time from the billing portal.
- How do I sign in?
- Enter your email and a one-time sign-in link is sent to it. There is no password to remember or leak.
- How do I delete my account?
- Write in through the feedback form or email support@marketmiss.com from the account's address, and the account and everything referencing it — including your watchlist — is removed. Cancel any subscription first from the billing portal.