Disclaimer

MarketMiss is an informational and analytical tool. Every probability it shows — market prices, the blended market consensus, and the fair probability produced by our models — is an estimate. Estimates can be, and regularly are, wrong. Nothing on this site is investment, trading, or betting advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any contract, or a guarantee of any outcome. MarketMiss does not execute trades, hold funds, accept wagers, or operate a market; links to Kalshi and Polymarket open the venue's own site, where its terms apply. Prediction-market contracts can lose their entire value. Decide for yourself, and read each contract's resolution rules on the venue before acting.

• A fair probability is a model output built from public data (for example the Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast or GDPNow) and the historical distribution of that data's errors. It is our best estimate, not a fact.
• A gap between our fair probability and the market is not a recommendation. Markets can be right and our model wrong, and often are; the public track record exists so you can judge that yourself.
• Market prices shown here are periodic snapshots and may be stale or differ from what a venue currently quotes. Always check the live contract and its resolution rules on the venue.
• MarketMiss has no affiliation with Kalshi, Polymarket, the Federal Reserve Banks (including FRED, the Cleveland Fed, and the Atlanta Fed), the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data is used under each source's public terms.
• Some rows carry no fair probability at all. That is deliberate: where we do not have an honest model, we show the market only rather than invent a number.

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