About MarketMiss

MarketMiss watches US economics contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket — CPI, core CPI, GDP, unemployment, payrolls, Fed decisions — and puts an independent fair probability next to the market price. The board on the homepage ranks contracts by the size of that gap.

The fair probability is not an opinion and not a language model's guess. For each release we take a public nowcast (the Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow), fit the historical distribution of how far that nowcast has missed, and read off the chance the actual print lands past the contract's threshold. Where no honest model exists yet — Fed decisions, for now — the row says “no model” instead of showing a number.

Every fair value is written to an append-only log with the exact inputs and method version that produced it. Nothing is edited after the outcome is known. The track record scores every resolved event against the market, wins and losses alike.

MarketMiss executes no trades, holds no funds and takes no wagers. It links to the venue; what you do there is your decision. Probabilities are estimates and may be wrong.

The market side of every row is free. Early Access ($19/month) adds the fair probability on every event, the full prediction log, an unlimited watchlist and email alerts when a gap crosses your threshold. See pricing.

See also the terms of service, privacy policy, and full disclaimer.