How MarketMiss computes a fair probability
Sep 7, 2026 · 4 min read
The whole method behind the Fair column, in plain language: a public nowcast, its historical misses, and a probability that a contract resolves YES. No black box, no language model.
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MarketMiss lists live Kalshi and Polymarket prices for US economics contracts next to an independent fair probability computed exactly as described here, ranked by the gap. Browsing is free; an account adds a watchlist and the model's prediction log.